According to a new survey, 76 percent of uninsured Americans say they're ready to buy health coverage--if the price is right, rather than pay a penalty imposed by the PPACA.
"If (those without insurance) follow through when the exchanges open, the number of the uninsured will be reduced to about 5 percent of the population--a victory for reform, though possibly a major expense for government," authors of an Oliver Wyman report say in an article by Benefits Pro.
Analysis
That major expense is a problem in an era of strained state and federal budgets and zero job growth. Many people remember that the PPACA was touted as a job creator, lifting a burden off small employers. Few seem to see it that way in the business community today.
Survey Results
Oliver Wyman's consultants say they've conducted the first major survey of the consumers most likely to purchase coverage in the under-65 health insurance exchanges in their first few years of operation. The firm surveyed about 800 currently uninsured individuals about their health status, income and their attitudes toward the health system.
When asked to choose between buying insurance and paying a penalty, 76 percent of those surveyed elected to purchase coverage.
Oliver Wyman estimates that there are 51 million uninsured Americans. About 18 million have incomes below 133 percent of the Federal Poverty Level; they would be eligible for Medicaid coverage under ACA and would not be purchasing insurance for themselves. If, as the survey suggests, 76 percent of the remaining 33 million uninsured purchase coverage--either through the exchanges or in the individual market--that would represent 25 million newly insured Americans, reducing the number of the uninsured by about half.
Factor in uninsured people who will enroll in Medicaid (about 11 million in the estimate of the Urban Institute), and the number of the uninsured will be reduced from 51 million to about 15 million, or from 16.6 percent of the population to about 5 percent.
A Boon for Agents?
25 million for individuals purchasing health insurance seems like a great business stream for agents. However, the Medical Loss Ratio rules also are playing a factor in reducing agent commissions. How will all this play out ? ... it's going to get interesting.
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